Again, most often the books follow the leads of the market setters with some small variation based on house risk.
When the books become more confident in their numbers, they expand the limits. This information allows the books to sharpen the line, theoretically drawing it closer to its “true” odds. 
As game time draws nearer, more and more information pours into the market. Market-setting (sometimes known as sharp) sportsbook opens a market. The typical lifespan of a moneyline goes something like this: Most often, a sportsbook simply copies lines from the market-setters, the books that accept high-limit wagers from sharp, winning players. Some basic Googling can tell you whether or not a book sets markets. Moneylines begin when a market-setting sportsbook opens a line. That is, moneylines are usually a bit more bettor-friendly. The gist of it is, to get the “true” implied probability from a line, one must divide the implied probability of the line by the total implied probabilities of all options in the market.Īs a general rule, one should expect fairly low vig in moneyline markets compared to many other types of bets like props and futures. This page has more information about what is vig in sports betting. To figure out how much vig is in a market, one must perform some simple math based on the moneylines offered. The bookmakers want to turn a profit, so they include some vig, outside of maybe a few promo offers that may happen every now and then. The difference in numbers represents the vigorish, commonly called the vig or the “juice” – what the bookmaker charges for accepting your action. A market with say – one team being +380 and the other team being -380 represents a fair market, one with no vig. That brings us to: How does the sportsbook earn money booking moneyline bets? “Those percentages add up to more than 100.” “Hang on,” you may be saying to yourself. In the above example, San Francisco has a 79.16% to beat Detroit while the Lions have a 25.64% chance of pulling the upset. How do we figure out the implied probability from a moneyline? Substitute the absolute value of the American odds for “x” into these equations: Many fans would likely find it interesting to know their team had, say, a 20% chance to pull an upset over a favored team. In this way, even non-bettors can gain valuable information about event probabilities by tracking the betting market. They represent the current market expectation of a game. Moneylines at a sportsbook represent more than just betting opportunities. Betting the Moneyline: Implied probability So, +400 means you would win $400 on a $100 wager. 
This number reflects the potential winnings on a $100 stake.
#Moneyline vs spread plus#
The underdog will have a plus sign with a number. So, -400 means you must wager $400 to win $100. The number reflects the stake needed to win $100. The favored team is denoted with a minus sign, followed by a number. American odds use a “plus/minus” system based around $100 wagers. That is, you’ll risk a lot to win a little, “laying” the sportsbook a price.ĭifferent regions of the world use different odds formats. It’s not as simple as betting good teams to beat bad teams because the payouts on the moneyline reflect the situation. The payouts for the moneyline wagers vary depending on the respective competitors’ perceived strength in the betting market. Since the favorite is considered the team with the better chance to win, a winning wager will usually pay out less than the original amount wagered. A bettor would need to wager $155 to win $100. On the other hand, let’s say you want to bet the favored Ravens at -155. This side of the moneyline bet pays out more money per unit than a wager on the favorite. Bettors often like picking underdogs because they are usually “plus” money. Saints bettors would also get their original $100 back. A $100 wager on the Saints at +135 would pay $135 in profit if New Orleans wins the game outright. The easiest way to understand moneyline wagers is by using a $100 bet. For this example, we’ll say the Ravens are moneyline favorites with a number of -155. The moneyline odds above are live for this week’s MNF game between the Ravens and Saints.
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